La Liga · Gameweek 10
Alaves vs Malaga Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Alaves 53.4%
Prediction probabilities
Alaves vs Malaga: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 62.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 59.3% in the model.
Alaves are 7th on 11 points after 8 matches; Malaga are 20th on 4. In their last 5 league matches Alaves won 1 and Malaga won 0.
Home and away form
Alaves at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 1–2 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 0–1 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 5–2 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Villarreal · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Getafe · 3–0 (W)
Malaga away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Real Madrid · 0–4 (L)
- 19 Aug 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37.8%Under 62.3%
- Both teams score
- 40.7%No 59.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.45 – 0.75Total 2.20 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 24%Alaves · Malaga
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64.8% | 35.3% |
| 2.5 | 37.8% | 62.3% |
| 3.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Alaves to score 1.45 goals and Malaga 0.75. Its ratings have Alaves scoring at 0.93 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 0.71 and 1.04 for Malaga. How the model works.
Questions about Alaves vs Malaga
Who is the favourite in Alaves vs Malaga?
Our model's most likely result is Alaves win at 53.4%. Full probabilities: Alaves 53.4%, draw 27.2%, Malaga 19.4%.
What is the most likely score in Alaves vs Malaga?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 15.8%. The model expects 1.45 goals for Alaves and 0.75 for Malaga.
Will Alaves vs Malaga have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 37.8% and both teams to score 40.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.