La Liga · Gameweek 10
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Rayo Vallecano 47.7%
Prediction probabilities
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.8% in the model.
Rayo Vallecano are 13th on 8 points after 7 matches; Elche are 18th on 6. In 6 La Liga meetings since 2021-22, Rayo Vallecano won 3, Elche won 3 and none were drawn. They last met on 3 Apr 2026: Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche. In their last 5 league matches Rayo Vallecano won 2 and Elche won 1.
Home and away form
Rayo Vallecano at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 15 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 3–2 (W)
- 20 Aug 2026 · Alaves · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Villarreal · 2–0 (W)
Elche away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 1–1 (D)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–3 (L)
- 17 Aug 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 23 May 2026 · Girona · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.1%Under 52.9%
- Both teams score
- 50.8%No 49.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.51 – 1.05Total 2.56 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 22%Rayo Vallecano · Elche
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 2.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 3.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Rayo Vallecano to score 1.51 goals and Elche 1.05. Its ratings have Rayo Vallecano scoring at 0.90 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.01 and 1.11 for Elche. How the model works.
Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our model's most likely result is Rayo Vallecano win at 47.7%. Full probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 47.7%, draw 26.2%, Elche 26.2%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.4%. The model expects 1.51 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.05 for Elche.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Elche have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.1% and both teams to score 50.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.