La Liga · Gameweek 10
Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Villarreal 43.4%
Prediction probabilities
Valencia vs Villarreal: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 54.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 58.0% in the model.
Valencia are 19th on 5 points after 8 matches; Villarreal are 11th on 8. In 12 La Liga meetings since 2020-21, Valencia won 3, Villarreal won 6 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 22 Feb 2026: Villarreal 2–1 Valencia. In their last 5 league matches Valencia won 1 and Villarreal won 2.
Home and away form
Valencia at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 0–5 (L)
- 25 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–0 (D)
- 23 May 2026 · Barcelona · 3–1 (W)
Villarreal away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Real Madrid · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 3–1 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Alaves · 0–1 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 2–2 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.9%Under 45.1%
- Both teams score
- 58.0%No 42.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.31 – 1.57Total 2.88 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 27%Valencia · Villarreal
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| 2.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 3.5 | 32.6% | 67.4% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Valencia to score 1.31 goals and Villarreal 1.57. Its ratings have Valencia scoring at 0.92 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 1.41 and 0.95 for Villarreal. How the model works.
Questions about Valencia vs Villarreal
Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our model's most likely result is Villarreal win at 43.4%. Full probabilities: Valencia 31.6%, draw 25.0%, Villarreal 43.4%.
What is the most likely score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.7%. The model expects 1.31 goals for Valencia and 1.57 for Villarreal.
Will Valencia vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.9% and both teams to score 58.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.