La Liga · Gameweek 10
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Atletico Madrid 64.5%
Prediction probabilities
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 59.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.4% in the model.
Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 19 points after 8 matches; Deportivo La Coruna are 8th on 10. In their last 5 league matches Atletico Madrid won 4 and Deportivo La Coruna won 1.
Home and away form
Atletico Madrid at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Real Madrid · 2–1 (W)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 4–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Villarreal · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Aug 2026 · Malaga · 2–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Girona · 1–0 (W)
Deportivo La Coruna away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 3–2 (W)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Malaga · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.9%Under 40.1%
- Both teams score
- 54.4%No 45.6%
- Predicted goals
- 2.15 – 0.95Total 3.10 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 12%Atletico Madrid · Deportivo La Coruna
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| 2.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| 3.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Atletico Madrid to score 2.15 goals and Deportivo La Coruna 0.95. Its ratings have Atletico Madrid scoring at 1.39 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.78 times, against 1.09 and 1.03 for Deportivo La Coruna. How the model works.
Questions about Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model's most likely result is Atletico Madrid win at 64.5%. Full probabilities: Atletico Madrid 64.5%, draw 19.9%, Deportivo La Coruna 15.5%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 10.4%. The model expects 2.15 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.95 for Deportivo La Coruna.
Will Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.9% and both teams to score 54.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.