La Liga · Gameweek 10
Athletic Club vs Getafe Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Athletic Club 48.0%
Prediction probabilities
Athletic Club vs Getafe: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 72.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 66.3% in the model.
Athletic Club are 10th on 8 points after 6 matches; Getafe are 14th on 8. In 12 La Liga meetings since 2020-21, Athletic Club won 3, Getafe won 2 and 7 were drawn. They last met on 5 Apr 2026: Getafe 2–0 Athletic Club. In their last 5 league matches Athletic Club won 2 and Getafe won 1.
Home and away form
Athletic Club at home
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Elche · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 3–0 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Sevilla · 1–3 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
Getafe away
5 played · 0W · 0D · 5L
Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Barcelona · 0–3 (L)
- 17 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Osasuna · 0–1 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Alaves · 0–3 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Elche · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 28.0%Under 72.0%
- Both teams score
- 33.7%No 66.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.17 – 0.66Total 1.84 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 51% · 31%Athletic Club · Getafe
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 2.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| 3.5 | 11.5% | 88.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Athletic Club to score 1.17 goals and Getafe 0.66. Its ratings have Athletic Club scoring at 1.01 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.85 times, against 0.70 and 0.78 for Getafe. How the model works.
Questions about Athletic Club vs Getafe
Who is the favourite in Athletic Club vs Getafe?
Our model's most likely result is Athletic Club win at 48.0%. Full probabilities: Athletic Club 48.0%, draw 31.3%, Getafe 20.7%.
What is the most likely score in Athletic Club vs Getafe?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 18.5%. The model expects 1.17 goals for Athletic Club and 0.66 for Getafe.
Will Athletic Club vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 28.0% and both teams to score 33.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.