La Liga · Gameweek 10
Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Sevilla 48.6%
Prediction probabilities
Sevilla vs Osasuna: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.6% in the model.
Sevilla are 5th on 14 points after 8 matches; Osasuna are 16th on 8. In 12 La Liga meetings since 2020-21, Sevilla won 4, Osasuna won 4 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 26 Apr 2026: Osasuna 2–1 Sevilla. In their last 5 league matches Sevilla won 2 and Osasuna won 0.
Home and away form
Sevilla at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 1–3 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 1–3 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Real Madrid · 0–1 (L)
Osasuna away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 3.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Real Betis · 2–5 (L)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–4 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 2–5 (L)
- 27 Aug 2026 · Celta Vigo · 2–1 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Getafe · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.6%Under 50.4%
- Both teams score
- 52.6%No 47.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.58 – 1.08Total 2.66 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 21%Sevilla · Osasuna
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 2.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 3.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sevilla to score 1.58 goals and Osasuna 1.08. Its ratings have Sevilla scoring at 1.01 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 0.95 and 1.04 for Osasuna. How the model works.
Questions about Sevilla vs Osasuna
Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model's most likely result is Sevilla win at 48.6%. Full probabilities: Sevilla 48.6%, draw 25.5%, Osasuna 25.9%.
What is the most likely score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.1%. The model expects 1.58 goals for Sevilla and 1.08 for Osasuna.
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.6% and both teams to score 52.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.