La Liga · Gameweek 11
Villarreal vs Espanyol Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Villarreal 63.3%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Villarreal vs Espanyol: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 60.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.8% in the model.
Villarreal are 11th on 8 points after 8 matches; Espanyol are 12th on 8. In 36 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Villarreal won 18, Espanyol won 4 and 14 were drawn. They last met on 9 Feb 2026: Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol. In their last 5 league matches Villarreal won 2 and Espanyol won 1.
Home and away form
Villarreal at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Levante · 3–1 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 2–3 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 5–1 (W)
Espanyol away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 9 Oct 2026 · Malaga · 1–1 (D)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 2–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Real Sociedad · 1–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Osasuna · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Villarreal vs Espanyol: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.5%Under 39.5%
- Both teams score
- 55.8%No 44.2%
- Predicted goals
- 2.13 – 1.00Total 3.13 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 12%Villarreal · Espanyol
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.1% | 2/9 | 17.9% | 9/2 |
| 2.5 | 60.5% | 4/6 | 39.5% | 6/4 |
| 3.5 | 38.2% | 13/8 | 61.8% | 8/13 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Villarreal to score 2.13 goals and Espanyol 1.00. Its ratings have Villarreal scoring at 1.41 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 0.94 and 1.01 for Espanyol. How the model works.
Questions about Villarreal vs Espanyol
Who is the favourite in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Our model's most likely result is Villarreal win at 63.3%. Full probabilities: Villarreal 63.3%, draw 20.3%, Espanyol 16.4%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 10.0%. The model expects 2.13 goals for Villarreal and 1.00 for Espanyol.
Will Villarreal vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.5% and both teams to score 55.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ac286764c95
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.