La Liga · Gameweek 11
Levante vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Atletico Madrid 50.1%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 1 of 3 predictions (33%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Levante vs Atletico Madrid: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 57.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 58.8% in the model.
Levante are 17th in La Liga with 7 points from 8 matches, while Atletico Madrid are second with 22 points from 9. Levante’s recent form is DDLLD, compared with Atletico Madrid’s WWWWW. Levante have won 6 of 28 head-to-head meetings, while Atletico Madrid have won 16; the last meeting ended 0-0 on 31 Jan 2026. Levante are 1-1-1 at home, while Atletico Madrid are 4-0-1 away.
Home and away form
Levante at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Sevilla · 3–3 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 2–4 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 5–2 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Mallorca · 2–0 (W)
Atletico Madrid away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Espanyol · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Alaves · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 3–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Sevilla · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.6%Under 42.4%
- Both teams score
- 58.8%No 41.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.22 – 1.77Total 3.00 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 17% · 29%Levante · Atletico Madrid
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.2% | 1/4 | 19.8% | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 57.6% | 8/11 | 42.4% | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 35.2% | 15/8 | 64.8% | 8/15 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Levante to score 1.22 goals and Atletico Madrid 1.77. Its ratings have Levante scoring at 1.07 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.15 times, against 1.39 and 0.77 for Atletico Madrid. How the model works.
Questions about Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Who is the favourite in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model's most likely result is Atletico Madrid win at 50.1%. Full probabilities: Levante 26.2%, draw 23.7%, Atletico Madrid 50.1%.
What is the most likely score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.0%. The model expects 1.22 goals for Levante and 1.77 for Atletico Madrid.
Will Levante vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.6% and both teams to score 58.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-976ac82f07e3
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.