La Liga · Gameweek 11
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Rayo Vallecano 39.3%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 1 of 4 predictions (25%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 58.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 52.1% in the model.
Rayo Vallecano are 13th on 8 points after 7 matches; Celta Vigo are 10th on 8. In 20 La Liga meetings since 2012-13, Rayo Vallecano won 9, Celta Vigo won 5 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 18 Jan 2026: Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano. In their last 5 league matches Rayo Vallecano won 2 and Celta Vigo won 1.
Home and away form
Rayo Vallecano at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 15 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 3–2 (W)
- 20 Aug 2026 · Alaves · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Villarreal · 2–0 (W)
Celta Vigo away
5 played · 0W · 5D · 0L
Goals per match: 0.4 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Elche · 0–0 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 1–1 (D)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Valencia · 0–0 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Athletic Club · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.7%Under 58.3%
- Both teams score
- 47.9%No 52.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.25 – 1.10Total 2.35 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 29%Rayo Vallecano · Celta Vigo
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.4% | 4/9 | 31.6% | 85/40 |
| 2.5 | 41.7% | 11/8 | 58.3% | 8/11 |
| 3.5 | 21.1% | 7/2 | 78.9% | 1/4 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Rayo Vallecano to score 1.25 goals and Celta Vigo 1.10. Its ratings have Rayo Vallecano scoring at 0.91 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.07 and 0.92 for Celta Vigo. How the model works.
Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our model's most likely result is Rayo Vallecano win at 39.3%. Full probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 39.3%, draw 28.5%, Celta Vigo 32.2%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.25 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.10 for Celta Vigo.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 41.7% and both teams to score 47.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,561
- Model version
- dc-v4-c36afb6aba12
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.