La Liga · Gameweek 11
Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Barcelona 80.5%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 2 of 5 predictions (40%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Barcelona vs Alaves: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 71.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.3% in the model.
Barcelona are 1st on 27 points after 9 matches; Alaves are 7th on 11. In 20 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Barcelona won 15, Alaves won 2 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 13 May 2026: Alaves 1–0 Barcelona. In their last 5 league matches Barcelona won 5 and Alaves won 1.
Home and away form
Barcelona at home
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 4.3 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Getafe · 3–0 (W)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 7–2 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 5–2 (W)
- 27 Aug 2026 · Athletic Club · 2–0 (W)
Alaves away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 1–2 (L)
- 20 Aug 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Real Oviedo · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Barcelona vs Alaves: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71.3%Under 28.8%
- Both teams score
- 51.3%No 48.7%
- Predicted goals
- 2.91 – 0.78Total 3.69 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 46% · 5%Barcelona · Alaves
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.4% | 2/15 | 11.6% | 15/2 |
| 2.5 | 71.3% | 2/5 | 28.8% | 5/2 |
| 3.5 | 50.3% | evs | 49.7% | evs |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Barcelona to score 2.91 goals and Alaves 0.78. Its ratings have Barcelona scoring at 2.06 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.75 times, against 0.93 and 0.95 for Alaves. How the model works.
Questions about Barcelona vs Alaves
Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Alaves?
Our model's most likely result is Barcelona win at 80.5%. Full probabilities: Barcelona 80.5%, draw 12.6%, Alaves 6.9%.
What is the most likely score in Barcelona vs Alaves?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 10.6%. The model expects 2.91 goals for Barcelona and 0.78 for Alaves.
Will Barcelona vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 71.2% and both teams to score 51.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,563
- Model version
- dc-v4-cb8f63957462
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.