La Liga · Gameweek 11
Getafe vs Sevilla Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Getafe 39.0%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Getafe vs Sevilla: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 68.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 61.0% in the model.
Getafe are 15th on 8 points after 8 matches; Sevilla are 5th on 14. In 40 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Getafe won 15, Sevilla won 20 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 22 Feb 2026: Getafe 0–1 Sevilla. In their last 5 league matches Getafe won 1 and Sevilla won 2.
Home and away form
Getafe at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Racing Santander · 1–0 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Osasuna · 1–0 (W)
Sevilla away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Levante · 3–3 (D)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Athletic Club · 3–1 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Getafe vs Sevilla: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 31.2%Under 68.8%
- Both teams score
- 39.0%No 61.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.07 – 0.89Total 1.96 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 41% · 34%Getafe · Sevilla
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58.6% | 8/11 | 41.4% | 11/8 |
| 2.5 | 31.2% | 9/4 | 68.8% | 4/9 |
| 3.5 | 13.6% | 13/2 | 86.4% | 2/13 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Getafe to score 1.07 goals and Sevilla 0.89. Its ratings have Getafe scoring at 0.71 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.78 times, against 1.02 and 1.03 for Sevilla. How the model works.
Questions about Getafe vs Sevilla
Who is the favourite in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our model's most likely result is Getafe win at 39.0%. Full probabilities: Getafe 39.0%, draw 31.8%, Sevilla 29.2%.
What is the most likely score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 14.8%. The model expects 1.07 goals for Getafe and 0.89 for Sevilla.
Will Getafe vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 31.2% and both teams to score 39.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,564
- Model version
- dc-v4-2bff7ddad7a2
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →