La Liga · Gameweek 11
Elche vs Valencia Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Elche 45.1%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 6 of 9 predictions (67%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Elche vs Valencia: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.5% in the model.
Elche are 18th on 7 points after 9 matches; Valencia are 19th on 6. In 12 La Liga meetings since 2013-14, Elche won 3, Valencia won 7 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 11 Apr 2026: Elche 1–0 Valencia. In their last 5 league matches Elche won 1 and Valencia won 1.
Home and away form
Elche at home
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–0 (D)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Real Madrid · 2–3 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Barcelona · 0–5 (L)
Valencia away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–2 (D)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Sevilla · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Elche vs Valencia: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.1%Under 52.9%
- Both teams score
- 51.5%No 48.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.46 – 1.10Total 2.56 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 23%Elche · Valencia
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.8% | 4/11 | 27.2% | 11/4 |
| 2.5 | 47.1% | 11/10 | 52.9% | 10/11 |
| 3.5 | 25.5% | 3/1 | 74.5% | 1/3 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Elche to score 1.46 goals and Valencia 1.10. Its ratings have Elche scoring at 1.00 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.08 times, against 0.91 and 0.98 for Valencia. How the model works.
Questions about Elche vs Valencia
Who is the favourite in Elche vs Valencia?
Our model's most likely result is Elche win at 45.1%. Full probabilities: Elche 45.1%, draw 26.8%, Valencia 28.1%.
What is the most likely score in Elche vs Valencia?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.46 goals for Elche and 1.10 for Valencia.
Will Elche vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.1% and both teams to score 51.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,566
- Model version
- dc-v4-c3164ae603c0
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →