La Liga · Gameweek 11
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Athletic Club 47.1%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 6 of 9 predictions (67%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 51.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.9% in the model.
Athletic Club are 11th with 9 points from 7 matches, while Real Sociedad are 5th with 16 points from 9. Athletic Club’s recent form is DDDWW, compared with Real Sociedad’s WWWLW. The head-to-head record is 12 Athletic Club wins, 13 Real Sociedad wins and 11 draws from 36 meetings; the last meeting finished 1-1 on 1 Feb 2026. Athletic Club have won 1 of 4 at home, while Real Sociedad have won 3 of 5 away.
Home and away form
Athletic Club at home
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Elche · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 3–0 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Sevilla · 1–3 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
Real Sociedad away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Malaga · 5–2 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 3–2 (W)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Elche · 3–2 (W)
- 26 Aug 2026 · Real Madrid · 1–4 (L)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.2%Under 51.8%
- Both teams score
- 51.9%No 48.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.52 – 1.08Total 2.60 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 22%Athletic Club · Real Sociedad
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.6% | 4/11 | 26.4% | 11/4 |
| 2.5 | 48.2% | 11/10 | 51.8% | 10/11 |
| 3.5 | 26.4% | 11/4 | 73.6% | 4/11 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Athletic Club to score 1.52 goals and Real Sociedad 1.08. Its ratings have Athletic Club scoring at 0.99 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.83 times, against 1.16 and 1.03 for Real Sociedad. How the model works.
Questions about Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Who is the favourite in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our model's most likely result is Athletic Club win at 47.1%. Full probabilities: Athletic Club 47.1%, draw 26.3%, Real Sociedad 26.6%.
What is the most likely score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.52 goals for Athletic Club and 1.08 for Real Sociedad.
Will Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.2% and both teams to score 51.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,567
- Model version
- dc-v4-15f42695455b
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →