La Liga · Gameweek 11
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Deportivo La Coruna 48.8%
Our La Liga record: the most likely result happened in 6 of 10 predictions (60%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.6% in the model.
Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 11 points after 9 matches; Osasuna are 10th on 11. In their last 5 league matches Deportivo La Coruna won 0 and Osasuna won 1.
Home and away form
Deportivo La Coruna at home
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 16 Oct 2026 · Levante · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Sevilla · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Valencia · 3–1 (W)
- 17 Aug 2026 · Elche · 1–1 (D)
Osasuna away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 3.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Real Betis · 2–5 (L)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–4 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 2–5 (L)
- 27 Aug 2026 · Celta Vigo · 2–1 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Getafe · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.5%Under 50.5%
- Both teams score
- 52.6%No 47.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.58 – 1.07Total 2.65 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 21%Deportivo La Coruna · Osasuna
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 2.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 3.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 48.8% · 25.8% · 25.4% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Deportivo La Coruna win
- 48.8%
- Draw
- 25.8%
- Osasuna win
- 25.4%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.4%Under 50.6%
- Both teams score
- 52.5%No 47.5%
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 21%Deportivo La Coruna · Osasuna
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 12.3% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the La Liga season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: deportivo la coruna wins · above: osasuna wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.3% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Deportivo La Coruna to score 1.58 goals and Osasuna 1.07. Its ratings have Deportivo La Coruna scoring at 1.04 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.95 and 1.02 for Osasuna. How the model works.
Questions about Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
Our model's most likely result is Deportivo La Coruna win at 48.8%. Full probabilities: Deportivo La Coruna 48.8%, draw 25.8%, Osasuna 25.4%.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.58 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.07 for Osasuna.
Will Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.5% and both teams to score 52.6%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-19
- Matches used
- 4,568
- Model version
- dc-v4-80360af7f82b
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →