Championship · Gameweek 16
Southampton vs Derby County Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Southampton 64.1%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Southampton: 1 of 5. Derby County: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Southampton vs Derby County: prediction analysis
Southampton are 4th on 28 points after 15 matches; Derby County are 23rd on 10. In 10 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Southampton won 3, Derby County won 1 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 11 Apr 2026: Southampton 2–1 Derby County. In their last 5 league matches Southampton won 2 and Derby County won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Southampton at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 4–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–0 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 4–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 3–1 (W)
Derby County away
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 1–4 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–1 (D)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Southampton vs Derby County: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.2%Under 39.8%
- Both teams score
- 55.0%No 45.0%
- Predicted goals
- 2.15 – 0.97Total 3.11 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 12%Southampton · Derby County
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–0, happens only 10.2% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 2.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 3.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Southampton to score 2.15 goals and Derby County 0.97. Its ratings have Southampton scoring at 1.38 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.89 times, against 0.93 and 1.07 for Derby County. Full methodology.
Questions about Southampton vs Derby County
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Derby County?
Our model's most likely result is Southampton win at 64.1%. Full probabilities: Southampton 64.1%, draw 20.1%, Derby County 15.7%.
What is the most likely score in Southampton vs Derby County?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 10.2%. The model expects 2.15 goals for Southampton and 0.97 for Derby County.
Will Southampton vs Derby County have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.2% and both teams to score 55.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →