Championship · Gameweek 17
Wolverhampton vs Derby County Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Wolverhampton 58.3%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Wolverhampton: 3 of 6. Derby County: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Wolverhampton vs Derby County: prediction analysis
Wolverhampton are fifth in the Championship with 28 points, while Derby County are 23rd with 10 points. Wolverhampton are unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws; Derby County have one win, one draw and three losses. Wolverhampton lead the head-to-head record with eight wins from 16 meetings, and won the last meeting 2-0 on 11 Apr 2018. At home, Wolverhampton have four wins from seven; Derby County have one win from seven away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Wolverhampton at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 3–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Watford · 1–0 (W)
- 20 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
Derby County away
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 1–4 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–1 (D)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Wolverhampton vs Derby County: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.2%Under 45.8%
- Both teams score
- 52.9%No 47.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.88 – 0.97Total 2.85 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 15%Wolverhampton · Derby County
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.8%), but more scorelines end in Wolverhampton winning, so that is the most likely result (58.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.0% | 22.1% |
| 2.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 3.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Wolverhampton to score 1.88 goals and Derby County 0.97. Its ratings have Wolverhampton scoring at 1.20 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.89 times, against 0.93 and 1.07 for Derby County. Full methodology.
Questions about Wolverhampton vs Derby County
Who is the favourite in Wolverhampton vs Derby County?
Our model's most likely result is Wolverhampton win at 58.3%. Full probabilities: Wolverhampton 58.3%, draw 22.8%, Derby County 19.0%.
What is the most likely score in Wolverhampton vs Derby County?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.8%. The model expects 1.88 goals for Wolverhampton and 0.97 for Derby County.
Will Wolverhampton vs Derby County have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.2% and both teams to score 52.9%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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