Championship · Gameweek 16
Norwich City vs Cardiff City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Norwich City 57.9%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Norwich City: 2 of 5. Cardiff City: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Norwich City vs Cardiff City: prediction analysis
Norwich City are 12th in the Championship with 21 points, while Cardiff City are 14th with 18 points. Norwich City’s recent form is WWWWL, compared with Cardiff City’s WDLWD. Norwich City have won 15 of 24 meetings, including a 4-2 victory in the last meeting on 3 May 2025. At home, Norwich City have 3 wins from 7; Cardiff City have 0 wins from 7 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Norwich City at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Watford · 3–2 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–1 (L)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–4 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–1 (W)
Cardiff City away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 0–3 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Norwich City vs Cardiff City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65.2%Under 34.8%
- Both teams score
- 62.5%No 37.5%
- Predicted goals
- 2.13 – 1.23Total 3.36 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 12%Norwich City · Cardiff City
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.7% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 2.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 3.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Norwich City to score 2.13 goals and Cardiff City 1.23. Its ratings have Norwich City scoring at 1.23 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 1.02 and 1.19 for Cardiff City. Full methodology.
Questions about Norwich City vs Cardiff City
Who is the favourite in Norwich City vs Cardiff City?
Our model's most likely result is Norwich City win at 57.9%. Full probabilities: Norwich City 57.9%, draw 21.0%, Cardiff City 21.1%.
What is the most likely score in Norwich City vs Cardiff City?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.7%. The model expects 2.13 goals for Norwich City and 1.23 for Cardiff City.
Will Norwich City vs Cardiff City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 65.2% and both teams to score 62.5%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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