Championship · Gameweek 16
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Millwall 47.8%
The model favours Millwall although they are 16th and Queens Park Rangers 8th. Its ratings come from results weighted by age, so a match from a year ago still counts half as much as last week's. Playing at home also adds to Millwall's chances.
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Millwall: 3 of 5. Queens Park Rangers: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers: prediction analysis
Millwall are 16th in the Championship with 18 points, while Queens Park Rangers are 8th with 24 points. Millwall’s recent form is LLWLD, compared with WDLWL for Queens Park Rangers. Across 24 meetings, Millwall have won 8, Queens Park Rangers 7 and 9 have been drawn. Millwall won the last meeting 2-0 on 18 Apr 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Millwall at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Derby County · 4–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 2–2 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–2 (D)
Queens Park Rangers away
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 1–4 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–3 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.5%Under 51.5%
- Both teams score
- 52.0%No 48.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.54 – 1.07Total 2.61 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 21%Millwall · Queens Park Rangers
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.4%), but more scorelines end in Millwall winning, so that is the most likely result (47.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 3.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Millwall to score 1.54 goals and Queens Park Rangers 1.07. Its ratings have Millwall scoring at 0.99 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.99 and 1.07 for Queens Park Rangers. Full methodology.
Questions about Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers
Who is the favourite in Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Our model's most likely result is Millwall win at 47.8%. Full probabilities: Millwall 47.8%, draw 26.0%, Queens Park Rangers 26.2%.
What is the most likely score in Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.4%. The model expects 1.54 goals for Millwall and 1.07 for Queens Park Rangers.
Will Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.5% and both teams to score 52.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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