Championship · Gameweek 16
Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Swansea City 39.3%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Swansea City: 5 of 5. West Bromwich Albion: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion: prediction analysis
Swansea City are seventh in the Championship with 26 points from 15 matches, while West Bromwich Albion are sixth with 28 points. Swansea City have won one of their last five, compared with three wins and two draws for West Bromwich Albion. The teams have seven wins each in 16 meetings, and Swansea City won the last meeting 1-0 on 1 Jan 2026. Both clubs have four wins in seven home or away matches respectively.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Swansea City at home
4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 4–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 3–1 (W)
West Bromwich Albion away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 2–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Wolverhampton · 0–1 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.8%Under 59.2%
- Both teams score
- 47.1%No 52.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.23 – 1.08Total 2.31 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 29%Swansea City · West Bromwich Albion
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.5%), but more scorelines end in Swansea City winning, so that is the most likely result (39.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 2.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 3.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Swansea City to score 1.23 goals and West Bromwich Albion 1.08. Its ratings have Swansea City scoring at 0.99 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 0.96 and 0.85 for West Bromwich Albion. Full methodology.
Questions about Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion
Who is the favourite in Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion?
Our model's most likely result is Swansea City win at 39.3%. Full probabilities: Swansea City 39.3%, draw 28.8%, West Bromwich Albion 31.9%.
What is the most likely score in Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.5%. The model expects 1.23 goals for Swansea City and 1.08 for West Bromwich Albion.
Will Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.8% and both teams to score 47.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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