Championship · Gameweek 17
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Watford 38.3%
The model favours Watford although they are 20th and Blackburn Rovers 13th. Its ratings come from results weighted by age, so a match from a year ago still counts half as much as last week's. Playing at home also adds to Watford's chances.
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Watford: 4 of 5. Blackburn Rovers: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers: prediction analysis
Watford sit 20th in the Championship with 15 points, while Blackburn Rovers are 13th with 21 points. Watford’s last five brought two wins, one draw and two losses; Blackburn recorded two wins and three losses. The teams have six wins apiece and four draws in 16 meetings, with the last meeting ending 1-1. Watford have four wins in eight at home, while Blackburn have one win in seven away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Watford at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–0 (D)
- 3 Nov 2026 · Lincoln City · 1–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 2–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 0–4 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
Blackburn Rovers away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 0–4 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 2–3 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.5%Under 60.5%
- Both teams score
- 46.1%No 53.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.19 – 1.07Total 2.27 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 30%Watford · Blackburn Rovers
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.6%), but more scorelines end in Watford winning, so that is the most likely result (38.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 2.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 3.5 | 19.4% | 80.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Watford to score 1.19 goals and Blackburn Rovers 1.07. Its ratings have Watford scoring at 0.85 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 0.88 and 0.96 for Blackburn Rovers. Full methodology.
Questions about Watford vs Blackburn Rovers
Who is the favourite in Watford vs Blackburn Rovers?
Our model's most likely result is Watford win at 38.3%. Full probabilities: Watford 38.3%, draw 29.2%, Blackburn Rovers 32.5%.
What is the most likely score in Watford vs Blackburn Rovers?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 1.19 goals for Watford and 1.07 for Blackburn Rovers.
Will Watford vs Blackburn Rovers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 39.5% and both teams to score 46.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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