Championship · Gameweek 16
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Burnley 52.8%
The model favours Burnley although they are 22nd and Blackburn Rovers 13th. Its ratings come from results weighted by age, so a match from a year ago still counts half as much as last week's. Playing at home also adds to Burnley's chances.
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Burnley: 0 of 5. Blackburn Rovers: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers: prediction analysis
Burnley are 22nd in the Championship with 10 points, while Blackburn Rovers are 13th with 21 points. Burnley’s recent form is LDDLL, compared with Blackburn Rovers’ WLLWL. Burnley have won 6 of the 10 meetings, with 4 draws and no Blackburn Rovers wins; Burnley won the last meeting 1-0 on 4 Jan 2025. At home, Burnley have 5 draws and 2 losses from 7, while Blackburn Rovers have 1 win, 3 draws and 3 losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Burnley at home
4 played · 0W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–0 (D)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–2 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
Blackburn Rovers away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 0–4 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 2–3 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.0%Under 53.0%
- Both teams score
- 49.1%No 50.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.61 – 0.94Total 2.56 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 20%Burnley · Blackburn Rovers
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 12.3% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 2.5 | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| 3.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Burnley to score 1.61 goals and Blackburn Rovers 0.94. Its ratings have Burnley scoring at 1.15 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.88 and 0.96 for Blackburn Rovers. Full methodology.
Questions about Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers
Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Our model's most likely result is Burnley win at 52.8%. Full probabilities: Burnley 52.8%, draw 25.4%, Blackburn Rovers 21.8%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.61 goals for Burnley and 0.94 for Blackburn Rovers.
Will Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.0% and both teams to score 49.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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