Championship · Gameweek 17
Cardiff City vs Preston North End Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Cardiff City 48.8%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Cardiff City: 1 of 5. Preston North End: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Cardiff City vs Preston North End: prediction analysis
Cardiff City are 14th with 18 points after 15 matches, while Preston North End are 24th with 8 points. Cardiff City’s recent form is WDLWD, compared with Preston North End’s WLLDL. Cardiff City have won 12 of 30 head-to-head meetings, while Preston North End have won 10; the last meeting ended 2-2 on 8 Apr 2025. Cardiff City are unbeaten at home with 4 wins and 4 draws, while Preston North End have 0 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Cardiff City at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.4 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Burnley · 5–4 (W)
- 4 Nov 2026 · West Ham · 3–3 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Watford · 5–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–1 (W)
Preston North End away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 0–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 1–4 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Cardiff City vs Preston North End: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.4%Under 45.6%
- Both teams score
- 56.6%No 43.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.68 – 1.18Total 2.86 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 19%Cardiff City · Preston North End
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.6%), but more scorelines end in Cardiff City winning, so that is the most likely result (48.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 2.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 3.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Cardiff City to score 1.68 goals and Preston North End 1.18. Its ratings have Cardiff City scoring at 1.02 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.19 times, against 0.85 and 1.12 for Preston North End. Full methodology.
Questions about Cardiff City vs Preston North End
Who is the favourite in Cardiff City vs Preston North End?
Our model's most likely result is Cardiff City win at 48.8%. Full probabilities: Cardiff City 48.8%, draw 24.6%, Preston North End 26.6%.
What is the most likely score in Cardiff City vs Preston North End?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.68 goals for Cardiff City and 1.18 for Preston North End.
Will Cardiff City vs Preston North End have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.4% and both teams to score 56.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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