Championship · Gameweek 17
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Middlesbrough 52.7%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Middlesbrough: 2 of 5. Swansea City: 5 of 5. See every prediction ›
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City: prediction analysis
Middlesbrough sit second in the Championship with 29 points, while Swansea City are seventh with 26. Middlesbrough's recent form is DLWWD, compared with Swansea City's LLWLL. Across 20 meetings since 2009-10, Middlesbrough have won 9, Swansea City 7 and 4 have been drawn. The last meeting ended Swansea City 2-2 Middlesbrough on 6 Apr 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Middlesbrough at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
Swansea City away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–2 (L)
- 3 Nov 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 0–5 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Middlesbrough vs Swansea City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.8%Under 48.2%
- Both teams score
- 53.3%No 46.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.71 – 1.04Total 2.75 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 18%Middlesbrough · Swansea City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.6%), but more scorelines end in Middlesbrough winning, so that is the most likely result (52.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 2.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 3.5 | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Middlesbrough to score 1.71 goals and Swansea City 1.04. Its ratings have Middlesbrough scoring at 1.22 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.90 times, against 0.99 and 0.96 for Swansea City. Full methodology.
Questions about Middlesbrough vs Swansea City
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Our model's most likely result is Middlesbrough win at 52.7%. Full probabilities: Middlesbrough 52.7%, draw 24.5%, Swansea City 22.8%.
What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.71 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.04 for Swansea City.
Will Middlesbrough vs Swansea City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.8% and both teams to score 53.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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