Championship · Gameweek 17
Portsmouth vs West Ham Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: West Ham 48.1%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Portsmouth: 1 of 6. West Ham: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Portsmouth vs West Ham: prediction analysis
Portsmouth are 11th in the Championship with 22 points, while West Ham are ninth with 23 points. Portsmouth’s recent form is LWDWD; West Ham’s is LDLLW. West Ham have won both previous meetings, including a 1-0 victory on 14 Jan 2012. Portsmouth have won 4 of 8 at home, while West Ham have won 3 of 8 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Portsmouth at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 3 Nov 2026 · Swansea City · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 2–1 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 3–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–2 (D)
West Ham away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–2 (L)
- 4 Nov 2026 · Cardiff City · 3–3 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 1–0 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 6–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Portsmouth vs West Ham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67.8%Under 32.2%
- Both teams score
- 67.5%No 32.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.52 – 1.97Total 3.50 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 14% · 22%Portsmouth · West Ham
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (9.3%), but more scorelines end in West Ham winning, so that is the most likely result (48.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| 2.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 3.5 | 46.3% | 53.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Portsmouth to score 1.52 goals and West Ham 1.97. Its ratings have Portsmouth scoring at 0.93 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 1.64 and 1.12 for West Ham. Full methodology.
Questions about Portsmouth vs West Ham
Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs West Ham?
Our model's most likely result is West Ham win at 48.1%. Full probabilities: Portsmouth 29.7%, draw 22.2%, West Ham 48.1%.
What is the most likely score in Portsmouth vs West Ham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 9.3%. The model expects 1.52 goals for Portsmouth and 1.97 for West Ham.
Will Portsmouth vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 67.8% and both teams to score 67.5%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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