Premier League · Gameweek 8
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Our model makes Nottingham Forest 50.6% favourites at Ipswich.
Match preview
Ipswich are 11th on 6 points after 5 matches; Nottingham Forest are 13th on 5. In 2 Premier League meetings since 2024-25, Ipswich won 0, Nottingham Forest won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 15 Mar 2025: Ipswich 2–4 Nottingham Forest. In their last 5 league matches Ipswich won 2 and Nottingham Forest won 1.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.7%Under 45.3%
- Both teams score
- 56.8%No 43.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.13 – 1.74Total 2.87
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 32%Ipswich · Nottingham Forest
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% | 1/4 | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% | 5/6 | 6/5 |
| 3.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% | 85/40 | 1/2 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 1 Ipswich player and 4 Nottingham Forest players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Ipswich injury news · Nottingham Forest injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Why the model sees it this way
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Ipswich to score 1.13 goals and Nottingham Forest 1.74. Ipswich are newly promoted with 5 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. How the model works.
Questions about Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Who is the favourite in Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model's most likely result is Nottingham Forest win at 50.6%. Full probabilities: Ipswich 23.9%, draw 25.5%, Nottingham Forest 50.6%.
What is the most likely score in Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.1%. The model expects 1.13 goals for Ipswich and 1.74 for Nottingham Forest.
Will Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.7% and both teams to score 56.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-10
- Matches used
- 4,540
- Model version
- dc-v4-b77f4fa08b5e
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.