Premier League · Gameweek 8
Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Liverpool 49.5%
Odds checked
Prediction probabilities and reference odds
Odds snapshot
Odds from Betfred. Prices can change at any time.
Liverpool vs Brighton: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 60.4% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.65 before margin.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 61.7% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.62 before margin.
Liverpool are 8th on 9 points after 5 matches; Brighton are 3rd on 13. In 18 Premier League meetings since 2017-18, Liverpool won 10, Brighton won 4 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 21 Mar 2026: Brighton 2–1 Liverpool. In their last 5 league matches Liverpool won 2 and Brighton won 3.
Home and away form
Liverpool at home
5 played · 1W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 2–2 (D)
- 24 May 2026 · Brentford · 1–1 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Chelsea · 1–1 (D)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Crystal Palace · 3–1 (W)
Brighton away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sunderland · 2–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Coventry City · 5–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Chelsea · 3–4 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Leeds United · 0–1 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Newcastle · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.4%Under 39.6%
- Both teams score
- 61.7%No 38.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.84 – 1.29Total 3.13 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 16%Liverpool · Brighton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.8% | 17.3% | 1/5 | 5/1 |
| 2.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% | 4/6 | 6/4 |
| 3.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% | 13/8 | 8/13 |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 6 Liverpool players and 9 Brighton players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Brighton injury news · Liverpool injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Liverpool to score 1.84 goals and Brighton 1.29. Its ratings have Liverpool scoring at 1.38 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.83 times, against 1.22 and 0.89 for Brighton. How the model works.
Questions about Liverpool vs Brighton
Who is the favourite in Liverpool vs Brighton?
Our model's most likely result is Liverpool win at 49.5%. Full probabilities: Liverpool 49.5%, draw 24.5%, Brighton 25.9%. De-vigged market odds give 45.2%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool vs Brighton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.3%. The model expects 1.84 goals for Liverpool and 1.29 for Brighton.
Will Liverpool vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.4% and both teams to score 61.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-11
- Matches used
- 4,548
- Odds checked
- 11 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-0b36ed83c720
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.