Premier League · Gameweek 8
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Newcastle 38.9%
Odds checked
Prediction probabilities and reference odds
Odds snapshot
Odds from Betfred. Prices can change at any time.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.5% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80 before margin.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.6% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68 before margin.
Crystal Palace are 12th on 7 points after 6 matches; Newcastle are 11th on 8. In 24 Premier League meetings since 2013-14, Crystal Palace won 6, Newcastle won 10 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 12 Apr 2026: Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle. In their last 5 league matches Crystal Palace won 2 and Newcastle won 2.
Home and away form
Crystal Palace at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Ipswich · 2–3 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Manchester City · 1–4 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Arsenal · 1–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Everton · 2–2 (D)
Newcastle away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 14 Sept 2026 · Leeds United · 1–4 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Tottenham · 2–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Fulham · 0–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–1 (D)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Arsenal · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.5%Under 44.5%
- Both teams score
- 59.6%No 40.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.40 – 1.50Total 2.90 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 25%Crystal Palace · Newcastle
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.6% | 20.4% | 1/4 | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% | 4/5 | 5/4 |
| 3.5 | 33.1% | 66.9% | 2/1 | 1/2 |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 5 Crystal Palace players and 9 Newcastle players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Crystal Palace injury news · Newcastle injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Crystal Palace to score 1.40 goals and Newcastle 1.50. Its ratings have Crystal Palace scoring at 0.96 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.97 times, against 1.22 and 0.97 for Newcastle. How the model works.
Questions about Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Who is the favourite in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our model's most likely result is Newcastle win at 38.9%. Full probabilities: Crystal Palace 34.5%, draw 26.7%, Newcastle 38.9%. De-vigged market odds give 36.1%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.40 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.50 for Newcastle.
Will Crystal Palace vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.5% and both teams to score 59.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-11
- Matches used
- 4,548
- Odds checked
- 11 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-0b36ed83c720
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.