Premier League · Gameweek 8
Manchester United vs Bournemouth Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Manchester United 47.6%
Odds checked
Prediction probabilities and reference odds
Odds snapshot
Odds from Betfred. Prices can change at any time.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 57.6% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74 before margin.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.9% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67 before margin.
Manchester United are 13th on 6 points after 6 matches; Bournemouth are 17th on 3. In 18 Premier League meetings since 2015-16, Manchester United won 9, Bournemouth won 4 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 20 Mar 2026: Bournemouth 2–2 Manchester United. In their last 5 league matches Manchester United won 1 and Bournemouth won 0.
Home and away form
Manchester United at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Tottenham · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Manchester City · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Ipswich · 5–2 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 3–2 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Liverpool · 3–2 (W)
Bournemouth away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Chelsea · 1–5 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Newcastle · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Manchester City · 1–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–1 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Fulham · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.6%Under 42.4%
- Both teams score
- 59.9%No 40.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.73 – 1.26Total 3.00 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 18%Manchester United · Bournemouth
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.9% | 19.1% | 2/9 | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% | 8/11 | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% | 15/8 | 8/15 |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 6 Manchester United players and 6 Bournemouth players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Bournemouth injury news · Manchester United injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Manchester United to score 1.73 goals and Bournemouth 1.26. Its ratings have Manchester United scoring at 1.17 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 1.09 and 0.98 for Bournemouth. How the model works.
Questions about Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Who is the favourite in Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Our model's most likely result is Manchester United win at 47.6%. Full probabilities: Manchester United 47.6%, draw 25.4%, Bournemouth 27.0%. De-vigged market odds give 44.5%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.73 goals for Manchester United and 1.26 for Bournemouth.
Will Manchester United vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.6% and both teams to score 59.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-11
- Matches used
- 4,548
- Odds checked
- 11 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-0b36ed83c720
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.