Premier League · Gameweek 8
Hull City vs Brentford Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Brentford 37.3%
Odds checked
Prediction probabilities and reference odds
Odds snapshot
Odds from Betfred. Prices can change at any time.
Hull City vs Brentford: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 50.4% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.98 before margin.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.7% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80 before margin.
Hull City are 9th on 9 points after 6 matches; Brentford are 4th on 10. In their last 5 league matches Hull City won 1 and Brentford won 1.
Home and away form
Hull City at home
3 played · 1W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 0.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Everton · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Manchester United · 2–0 (W)
Brentford away
5 played · 0W · 4D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bournemouth · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Leeds United · 1–1 (D)
- 24 May 2026 · Liverpool · 1–1 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Manchester City · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.4%Under 49.6%
- Both teams score
- 55.7%No 44.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.32 – 1.37Total 2.69 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 27%Hull City · Brentford
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% | 3/10 | 3/1 |
| 2.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% | evs | evs |
| 3.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% | 5/2 | 2/5 |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 6 Hull City players and 7 Brentford players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Brentford injury news · Hull City injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hull City to score 1.32 goals and Brentford 1.37. Hull City are newly promoted with 6 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. How the model works.
Questions about Hull City vs Brentford
Who is the favourite in Hull City vs Brentford?
Our model's most likely result is Brentford win at 37.3%. Full probabilities: Hull City 34.7%, draw 27.9%, Brentford 37.3%. De-vigged market odds give 45.8%.
What is the most likely score in Hull City vs Brentford?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.3%. The model expects 1.32 goals for Hull City and 1.37 for Brentford.
Will Hull City vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.4% and both teams to score 55.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-11
- Matches used
- 4,548
- Odds checked
- 11 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-0b36ed83c720
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.