Premier League · Gameweek 8
Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Sunderland 36.4%
Odds checked
Prediction probabilities and reference odds
Odds snapshot
Odds from 888sport. Prices can change at any time.
Sunderland vs Leeds United: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 55.9% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79 before margin.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.8% in the model, equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97 before margin.
Sunderland are 16th on 4 points after 6 matches; Leeds United are 7th on 9. In 2 Premier League meetings since 2025-26, Sunderland won 1, Leeds United won 0 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 3 Mar 2026: Leeds United 0–1 Sunderland. In their last 5 league matches Sunderland won 1 and Leeds United won 1.
Home and away form
Sunderland at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Brighton · 0–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Arsenal · 0–2 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Fulham · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Chelsea · 2–1 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Manchester United · 0–0 (D)
Leeds United away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Arsenal · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · West Ham · 0–3 (L)
- 11 May 2026 · Tottenham · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.1%Under 55.9%
- Both teams score
- 50.8%No 49.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.24 – 1.20Total 2.44 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 29%Sunderland · Leeds United
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% | 2/5 | 5/2 |
| 2.5 | 44.1% | 55.9% | 5/4 | 4/5 |
| 3.5 | 23.0% | 77.0% | 10/3 | 3/10 |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 5 Sunderland players and 3 Leeds United players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Leeds United injury news · Sunderland injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sunderland to score 1.24 goals and Leeds United 1.20. Its ratings have Sunderland scoring at 0.88 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 1.01 and 0.94 for Leeds United. How the model works.
Questions about Sunderland vs Leeds United
Who is the favourite in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Our model's most likely result is Sunderland win at 36.4%. Full probabilities: Sunderland 36.4%, draw 29.6%, Leeds United 34.1%. De-vigged market odds give 32.1%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 14.1%. The model expects 1.24 goals for Sunderland and 1.20 for Leeds United.
Will Sunderland vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.1% and both teams to score 50.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-11
- Matches used
- 4,548
- Odds checked
- 11 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-118c7efc6e2c
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.