Premier League · Gameweek 9
Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Bournemouth 42.8%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 7 of 15 predictions (47%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Bournemouth vs Leeds United: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 52.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 57.0% in the model.
Bournemouth are 19th on 3 points after 6 matches; Leeds United are 8th on 9. In 4 Premier League meetings since 2022-23, Bournemouth won 1, Leeds United won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 22 Apr 2026: Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds United. In their last 5 league matches Bournemouth won 0 and Leeds United won 1.
Home and away form
Bournemouth at home
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Liverpool · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Brentford · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Everton · 1–1 (D)
- 19 May 2026 · Manchester City · 1–1 (D)
- 3 May 2026 · Crystal Palace · 3–0 (W)
Leeds United away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Arsenal · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · West Ham · 0–3 (L)
- 11 May 2026 · Tottenham · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bournemouth vs Leeds United: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.9%Under 47.1%
- Both teams score
- 57.0%No 43.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.53 – 1.26Total 2.79 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 22%Bournemouth · Leeds United
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.7% | 2/7 | 22.3% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 52.9% | 10/11 | 47.1% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 30.6% | 9/4 | 69.4% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 4 Bournemouth players and 3 Leeds United players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Bournemouth injury news · Leeds United injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bournemouth to score 1.53 goals and Leeds United 1.26. Its ratings have Bournemouth scoring at 1.08 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.98 times, against 1.00 and 0.94 for Leeds United. How the model works.
Questions about Bournemouth vs Leeds United
Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
Our model's most likely result is Bournemouth win at 42.8%. Full probabilities: Bournemouth 42.8%, draw 26.9%, Leeds United 30.3%.
What is the most likely score in Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.53 goals for Bournemouth and 1.26 for Leeds United.
Will Bournemouth vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.9% and both teams to score 57.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,544
- Model version
- dc-v4-5d0709bf9135
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.