Premier League · Gameweek 9
Coventry City vs Sunderland Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Sunderland 37.2%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 7 of 15 predictions (47%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Coventry City vs Sunderland: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 50.6% in the model.
Coventry City are 14th on 6 points after 6 matches; Sunderland are 18th on 4. In their last 5 league matches Coventry City won 2 and Sunderland won 1.
Home and away form
Coventry City at home
3 played · 1W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Newcastle · 4–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 0–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Hull City · 0–1 (L)
Sunderland away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Manchester City · 3–5 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brentford · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Ipswich · 1–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Everton · 3–1 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Coventry City vs Sunderland: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.6%Under 57.4%
- Both teams score
- 49.4%No 50.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.15 – 1.23Total 2.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 32%Coventry City · Sunderland
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.8% | 4/9 | 30.2% | 9/4 |
| 2.5 | 42.6% | 11/8 | 57.4% | 8/11 |
| 3.5 | 21.8% | 7/2 | 78.2% | 2/7 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 5 Coventry City players and 4 Sunderland players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Coventry City injury news · Sunderland injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Coventry City to score 1.15 goals and Sunderland 1.23. Coventry City are newly promoted with 6 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. How the model works.
Questions about Coventry City vs Sunderland
Who is the favourite in Coventry City vs Sunderland?
Our model's most likely result is Sunderland win at 37.2%. Full probabilities: Coventry City 33.0%, draw 29.8%, Sunderland 37.2%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City vs Sunderland?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 14.1%. The model expects 1.15 goals for Coventry City and 1.23 for Sunderland.
Will Coventry City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.6% and both teams to score 49.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,544
- Model version
- dc-v4-5d0709bf9135
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.