Premier League · Gameweek 9
Hull City vs Ipswich Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Hull City 54.8%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 7 of 15 predictions (47%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Hull City vs Ipswich: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.3% in the model.
Hull City are 9th on 9 points after 7 matches; Ipswich are 10th on 9. In their last 5 league matches Hull City won 0 and Ipswich won 2.
Home and away form
Hull City at home
3 played · 1W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 0.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Everton · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Manchester United · 2–0 (W)
Ipswich away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Manchester City · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Everton · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Crystal Palace · 3–2 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Manchester United · 2–5 (L)
- 18 May 2025 · Leicester · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Hull City vs Ipswich: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.6%Under 46.4%
- Both teams score
- 54.3%No 45.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.80 – 1.02Total 2.82 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 17%Hull City · Ipswich
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.2% | 2/7 | 21.8% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 53.6% | 5/6 | 46.4% | 6/5 |
| 3.5 | 31.4% | 9/4 | 68.7% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 9 Hull City players and no Ipswich players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Hull City injury news · Ipswich injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hull City to score 1.80 goals and Ipswich 1.02. Hull City and Ipswich are newly promoted with 7 and 7 matches played, so their ratings lean on a promoted-club prior and are less certain. How the model works.
Questions about Hull City vs Ipswich
Who is the favourite in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our model's most likely result is Hull City win at 54.8%. Full probabilities: Hull City 54.8%, draw 24.8%, Ipswich 20.5%.
What is the most likely score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.8%. The model expects 1.80 goals for Hull City and 1.02 for Ipswich.
Will Hull City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.6% and both teams to score 54.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,544
- Model version
- dc-v4-5d0709bf9135
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.