Premier League · Gameweek 9
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Brentford 47.1%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 7 of 15 predictions (47%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 52.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.8% in the model.
Brentford are 6th on 10 points after 7 matches; Nottingham Forest are 16th on 5. In 8 Premier League meetings since 2022-23, Brentford won 3, Nottingham Forest won 3 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 25 Jan 2026: Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest. In their last 5 league matches Brentford won 1 and Nottingham Forest won 1.
Home and away form
Brentford at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Liverpool · 1–2 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Chelsea · 3–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Sunderland · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Tottenham · 3–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–2 (D)
Nottingham Forest away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace · 1–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Liverpool · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Manchester United · 2–3 (L)
- 4 May 2026 · Chelsea · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.4%Under 47.6%
- Both teams score
- 55.8%No 44.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.61 – 1.16Total 2.77 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 20%Brentford · Nottingham Forest
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.3% | 3/10 | 22.7% | 10/3 |
| 2.5 | 52.4% | 10/11 | 47.6% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 30.2% | 9/4 | 69.8% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 5 Brentford players and 4 Nottingham Forest players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Brentford injury news · Nottingham Forest injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Brentford to score 1.61 goals and Nottingham Forest 1.16. Its ratings have Brentford scoring at 1.16 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 0.97 and 0.92 for Nottingham Forest. How the model works.
Questions about Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Who is the favourite in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model's most likely result is Brentford win at 47.1%. Full probabilities: Brentford 47.1%, draw 26.5%, Nottingham Forest 26.4%.
What is the most likely score in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.6%. The model expects 1.61 goals for Brentford and 1.16 for Nottingham Forest.
Will Brentford vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.4% and both teams to score 55.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,544
- Model version
- dc-v4-5d0709bf9135
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.