Premier League · Gameweek 9
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Tottenham 42.4%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 7 of 15 predictions (47%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 57.1% in the model.
Tottenham are 20th on 3 points after 6 matches; Crystal Palace are 13th on 7. In 26 Premier League meetings since 2013-14, Tottenham won 18, Crystal Palace won 5 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 5 Mar 2026: Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace. In their last 5 league matches Tottenham won 0 and Crystal Palace won 2.
Home and away form
Tottenham at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 2–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Everton · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Newcastle · 0–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Everton · 1–0 (W)
- 11 May 2026 · Leeds United · 1–1 (D)
Crystal Palace away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Leeds United · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 3–2 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Everton · 0–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Brentford · 2–2 (D)
- 13 May 2026 · Manchester City · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.0%Under 47.0%
- Both teams score
- 57.1%No 42.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.53 – 1.27Total 2.80 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 22%Tottenham · Crystal Palace
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.7% | 2/7 | 22.3% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 53.0% | 10/11 | 47.0% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 30.7% | 9/4 | 69.3% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 6 Tottenham players and 6 Crystal Palace players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Crystal Palace injury news · Tottenham injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Tottenham to score 1.53 goals and Crystal Palace 1.27. Its ratings have Tottenham scoring at 1.04 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 0.96 and 0.97 for Crystal Palace. How the model works.
Questions about Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Who is the favourite in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model's most likely result is Tottenham win at 42.4%. Full probabilities: Tottenham 42.4%, draw 26.8%, Crystal Palace 30.8%.
What is the most likely score in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.53 goals for Tottenham and 1.27 for Crystal Palace.
Will Tottenham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.0% and both teams to score 57.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Model version
- dc-v4-1a06793baed6
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.