Premier League · Gameweek 9
Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Arsenal 41.4%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 10 of 19 predictions (53%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Liverpool vs Arsenal: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 50.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.0% in the model.
Liverpool are 5th on 12 points after 7 matches, while Arsenal are 2nd on 18 points. Liverpool’s recent form is WLWDW, compared with Arsenal’s WWLWW. In 42 meetings since 2005-06, Liverpool have won 14, Arsenal 11 and 17 have been draws. The last meeting ended 0-0 on 8 Jan 2026; Liverpool are winless at home in 3 matches, while Arsenal have won 3 of 4 away.
Home and away form
Liverpool at home
5 played · 0W · 4D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Manchester City · 0–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 2–2 (D)
- 24 May 2026 · Brentford · 1–1 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Chelsea · 1–1 (D)
Arsenal away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 0–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Sunderland · 2–0 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Aston Villa · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.1%Under 49.9%
- Both teams score
- 55.0%No 45.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.23 – 1.45Total 2.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 29%Liverpool · Arsenal
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.6% | 1/3 | 24.4% | 3/1 |
| 2.5 | 50.1% | evs | 49.9% | evs |
| 3.5 | 28.1% | 5/2 | 71.9% | 2/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 6 Liverpool players and 3 Arsenal players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Arsenal injury news · Liverpool injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Liverpool to score 1.23 goals and Arsenal 1.45. Its ratings have Liverpool scoring at 1.36 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.84 times, against 1.35 and 0.60 for Arsenal. How the model works.
Questions about Liverpool vs Arsenal
Who is the favourite in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our model's most likely result is Arsenal win at 41.4%. Full probabilities: Liverpool 31.1%, draw 27.5%, Arsenal 41.4%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.1%. The model expects 1.23 goals for Liverpool and 1.45 for Arsenal.
Will Liverpool vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.1% and both teams to score 55.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,549
- Model version
- dc-v4-6e7de2d64076
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →