Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Charlton Athletic 2–1 Sheffield United
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Sheffield United 43.6%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Charlton Athletic: 3 of 5. Sheffield United: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Charlton Athletic a 27.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Sheffield United. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Charlton Athletic are 21st on 14 points after 14 matches; Sheffield United are 9th on 22. In 6 Championship meetings since 2007-08, Charlton Athletic won 3, Sheffield United won 3 and none were drawn. They last met on 17 Jan 2026: Charlton Athletic 1–0 Sheffield United. In their last 5 league matches Charlton Athletic won 0 and Sheffield United won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Charlton Athletic at home
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–1 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 1–3 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–0 (D)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 0–0 (D)
Sheffield United away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Preston North End · 3–2 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield United: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.6%Under 60.4%
- Both teams score
- 45.5%No 54.5%
- Predicted goals
- 0.98 – 1.30Total 2.27 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 38%Charlton Athletic · Sheffield United
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.3%), but more scorelines end in Sheffield United winning, so that is the most likely result (43.6%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 2.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| 3.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Charlton Athletic to score 0.98 goals and Sheffield United 1.30. Its ratings have Charlton Athletic scoring at 0.73 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 1.08 and 0.92 for Sheffield United. Full methodology.
Questions about Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield United
What was the Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield United result?
Charlton Athletic 2–1 Sheffield United at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield United?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Charlton Athletic 27.7%, a draw 28.6% and Sheffield United 43.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield United?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 0.98 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.30 for Sheffield United (2.27 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →