Championship · Gameweek 16
Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Wolverhampton 61.2%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Wolverhampton: 3 of 6. Charlton Athletic: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic: prediction analysis
Wolverhampton are 5th on 28 points after 15 matches; Charlton Athletic are 19th on 17. In 10 Championship meetings since 2007-08, Wolverhampton won 6, Charlton Athletic won 1 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 28 Dec 2015: Charlton Athletic 0–2 Wolverhampton. In their last 5 league matches Wolverhampton won 3 and Charlton Athletic won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Wolverhampton at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 3–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Watford · 1–0 (W)
- 20 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
Charlton Athletic away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–3 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Watford · 0–2 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.2%Under 52.8%
- Both teams score
- 45.2%No 54.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.79 – 0.78Total 2.56 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 46% · 17%Wolverhampton · Charlton Athletic
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 13.5% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 2.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 3.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Wolverhampton to score 1.79 goals and Charlton Athletic 0.78. Its ratings have Wolverhampton scoring at 1.20 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.89 times, against 0.74 and 1.01 for Charlton Athletic. Full methodology.
Questions about Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic
Who is the favourite in Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic?
Our model's most likely result is Wolverhampton win at 61.2%. Full probabilities: Wolverhampton 61.2%, draw 23.2%, Charlton Athletic 15.6%.
What is the most likely score in Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.5%. The model expects 1.79 goals for Wolverhampton and 0.78 for Charlton Athletic.
Will Wolverhampton vs Charlton Athletic have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.2% and both teams to score 45.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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