Championship · Gameweek 17
Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Charlton Athletic 42.6%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Charlton Athletic: 3 of 5. Lincoln City: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City: prediction analysis
Charlton Athletic are 19th in the Championship with 17 points, while Lincoln City are 21st with 15 points. Charlton Athletic’s recent form is WLLLL, compared with Lincoln City’s LLLWD. At home, Charlton Athletic have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8 matches; Lincoln City have 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Charlton Athletic at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–1 (W)
- 3 Nov 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–1 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 1–3 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–0 (D)
Lincoln City away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–2 (L)
- 3 Nov 2026 · Watford · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–3 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.2%Under 59.8%
- Both teams score
- 46.2%No 53.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.29 – 1.01Total 2.29 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 28%Charlton Athletic · Lincoln City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.4%), but more scorelines end in Charlton Athletic winning, so that is the most likely result (42.6%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 2.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 3.5 | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Charlton Athletic to score 1.29 goals and Lincoln City 1.01. Its ratings have Charlton Athletic scoring at 0.74 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.85 and 1.19 for Lincoln City. Full methodology.
Questions about Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City
Who is the favourite in Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City?
Our model's most likely result is Charlton Athletic win at 42.6%. Full probabilities: Charlton Athletic 42.6%, draw 28.6%, Lincoln City 28.7%.
What is the most likely score in Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.29 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.01 for Lincoln City.
Will Charlton Athletic vs Lincoln City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.2% and both teams to score 46.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →