Championship · Gameweek 17
Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Norwich City 53.9%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Norwich City: 2 of 5. Queens Park Rangers: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers: prediction analysis
Norwich City are 12th with 21 points, while Queens Park Rangers are eighth with 24 points. Norwich City have won four of their last five matches, compared with two wins in five for Queens Park Rangers. Norwich City lead the head-to-head record with 13 wins from 26 meetings, and won the last meeting 2-1 on 1 Jan 2026. Norwich City have won three of seven at home, while Queens Park Rangers have won two of seven away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Norwich City at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Watford · 3–2 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–1 (L)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–4 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–1 (W)
Queens Park Rangers away
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 1–4 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–3 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.9%Under 40.1%
- Both teams score
- 59.6%No 40.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.91 – 1.19Total 3.10 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 15%Norwich City · Queens Park Rangers
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.5%), but more scorelines end in Norwich City winning, so that is the most likely result (53.9%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 2.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| 3.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Norwich City to score 1.91 goals and Queens Park Rangers 1.19. Its ratings have Norwich City scoring at 1.23 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 0.99 and 1.07 for Queens Park Rangers. Full methodology.
Questions about Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers
Who is the favourite in Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers?
Our model's most likely result is Norwich City win at 53.9%. Full probabilities: Norwich City 53.9%, draw 22.7%, Queens Park Rangers 23.4%.
What is the most likely score in Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.5%. The model expects 1.91 goals for Norwich City and 1.19 for Queens Park Rangers.
Will Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.9% and both teams to score 59.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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