Championship · Gameweek 17
Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Stoke City 38.8%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Stoke City: 1 of 5. Millwall: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Stoke City vs Millwall: prediction analysis
Stoke City sit 3rd in the Championship with 29 points from 15 matches, while Millwall are 16th with 18 points. Stoke City have won 4 of their last 5, whereas Millwall have won 1. Millwall lead the head-to-head record with 9 wins to Stoke City's 4 across 18 meetings, including a 3-1 win on 21 Apr 2026. Stoke City have won 4 of 7 at home, while Millwall have won 2 of 8 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Stoke City at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 2–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 0–0 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–1 (W)
Millwall away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 0–3 (L)
- 3 Nov 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Stoke City vs Millwall: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.4%Under 58.6%
- Both teams score
- 47.7%No 52.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.23 – 1.11Total 2.34 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 29%Stoke City · Millwall
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.4%), but more scorelines end in Stoke City winning, so that is the most likely result (38.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 2.5 | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 3.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Stoke City to score 1.23 goals and Millwall 1.11. Its ratings have Stoke City scoring at 0.91 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 0.99 and 0.92 for Millwall. Full methodology.
Questions about Stoke City vs Millwall
Who is the favourite in Stoke City vs Millwall?
Our model's most likely result is Stoke City win at 38.8%. Full probabilities: Stoke City 38.8%, draw 28.6%, Millwall 32.6%.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City vs Millwall?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.23 goals for Stoke City and 1.11 for Millwall.
Will Stoke City vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 41.4% and both teams to score 47.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →