Championship · Gameweek 16
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Middlesbrough 56.4%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Middlesbrough: 2 of 5. Bristol City: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: prediction analysis
Middlesbrough are 2nd on 29 points after 15 matches; Bristol City are 17th on 18. In 28 Championship meetings since 2009-10, Middlesbrough won 6, Bristol City won 16 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 14 Mar 2026: Middlesbrough 1–1 Bristol City. In their last 5 league matches Middlesbrough won 2 and Bristol City won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Middlesbrough at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
Bristol City away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–2 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 0–0 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.3%Under 47.7%
- Both teams score
- 52.2%No 47.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.80 – 0.97Total 2.77 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 17%Middlesbrough · Bristol City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.2%), but more scorelines end in Middlesbrough winning, so that is the most likely result (56.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 2.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 3.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Middlesbrough to score 1.80 goals and Bristol City 0.97. Its ratings have Middlesbrough scoring at 1.22 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.90 times, against 0.93 and 1.01 for Bristol City. Full methodology.
Questions about Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?
Our model's most likely result is Middlesbrough win at 56.4%. Full probabilities: Middlesbrough 56.4%, draw 23.6%, Bristol City 20.0%.
What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.2%. The model expects 1.80 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.97 for Bristol City.
Will Middlesbrough vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.3% and both teams to score 52.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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