Championship · Gameweek 17
Bristol City vs Wrexham Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bristol City 39.7%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Bristol City: 1 of 5. Wrexham: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Bristol City vs Wrexham: prediction analysis
Bristol City are 17th with 18 points, while Wrexham are 15th with 18 points. Bristol City’s recent form is LLWDL, compared with Wrexham’s DWLLW. The head-to-head record has one Wrexham win and one draw across two meetings, with the last meeting ending 2-2 on 17 Feb 2026. Bristol City have two wins in eight home matches, while Wrexham have one win in seven away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bristol City at home
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.4 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Norwich City · 0–5 (L)
- 4 Nov 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–1 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–0 (W)
Wrexham away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–1 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 0–6 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bristol City vs Wrexham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.8%Under 50.2%
- Both teams score
- 54.4%No 45.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.40 – 1.27Total 2.67 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 25%Bristol City · Wrexham
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.6%), but more scorelines end in Bristol City winning, so that is the most likely result (39.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 3.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bristol City to score 1.40 goals and Wrexham 1.27. Its ratings have Bristol City scoring at 0.93 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.08 and 1.03 for Wrexham. Full methodology.
Questions about Bristol City vs Wrexham
Who is the favourite in Bristol City vs Wrexham?
Our model's most likely result is Bristol City win at 39.7%. Full probabilities: Bristol City 39.7%, draw 26.5%, Wrexham 33.8%.
What is the most likely score in Bristol City vs Wrexham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.6%. The model expects 1.40 goals for Bristol City and 1.27 for Wrexham.
Will Bristol City vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.8% and both teams to score 54.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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