Championship · Gameweek 16
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bolton Wanderers 39.7%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Bolton Wanderers: 2 of 5. Portsmouth: 1 of 6. See every prediction ›
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: prediction analysis
Bolton Wanderers are 18th on 17 points after 15 matches; Portsmouth are 11th on 22. In their last 5 league matches Bolton Wanderers won 1 and Portsmouth won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bolton Wanderers at home
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 2–3 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 1–5 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–0 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–3 (L)
Portsmouth away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.4 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 0–0 (D)
- 20 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–1 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.2%Under 44.8%
- Both teams score
- 58.6%No 41.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.50 – 1.39Total 2.89 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 22%Bolton Wanderers · Portsmouth
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.8%), but more scorelines end in Bolton Wanderers winning, so that is the most likely result (39.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| 2.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 3.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bolton Wanderers to score 1.50 goals and Portsmouth 1.39. Its ratings have Bolton Wanderers scoring at 1.00 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.28 times, against 0.93 and 1.03 for Portsmouth. Full methodology.
Questions about Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth
Who is the favourite in Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth?
Our model's most likely result is Bolton Wanderers win at 39.7%. Full probabilities: Bolton Wanderers 39.7%, draw 25.3%, Portsmouth 34.9%.
What is the most likely score in Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.8%. The model expects 1.50 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.39 for Portsmouth.
Will Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.2% and both teams to score 58.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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