Championship · Gameweek 16
Stoke City vs Birmingham City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Stoke City 36.8%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Stoke City: 1 of 5. Birmingham City: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Stoke City vs Birmingham City: prediction analysis
Stoke City are 3rd in the Championship on 29 points, while Birmingham City lead on 29 points. Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, with 4 wins and 1 draw; Birmingham City have 4 wins and 1 loss. Both teams have 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at home or away respectively. The last meeting ended 1-1 on 24 Jan 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Stoke City at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 2–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 0–0 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–1 (W)
Birmingham City away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 2–1 (W)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Stoke City vs Birmingham City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.9%Under 58.1%
- Both teams score
- 48.2%No 51.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.20 – 1.15Total 2.35 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 30%Stoke City · Birmingham City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.4%), but more scorelines end in Stoke City winning, so that is the most likely result (36.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 2.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 3.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Stoke City to score 1.20 goals and Birmingham City 1.15. Its ratings have Stoke City scoring at 0.91 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 1.03 and 0.90 for Birmingham City. Full methodology.
Questions about Stoke City vs Birmingham City
Who is the favourite in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Our model's most likely result is Stoke City win at 36.8%. Full probabilities: Stoke City 36.8%, draw 28.6%, Birmingham City 34.6%.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.20 goals for Stoke City and 1.15 for Birmingham City.
Will Stoke City vs Birmingham City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 41.9% and both teams to score 48.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →