Championship · Gameweek 17
Burnley vs Birmingham City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Burnley 46.2%
The model favours Burnley although they are 22nd and Birmingham City 1st. Its ratings come from results weighted by age, so a match from a year ago still counts half as much as last week's. Playing at home also adds to Burnley's chances.
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Burnley: 0 of 5. Birmingham City: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Burnley vs Birmingham City: prediction analysis
Burnley are 22nd in the Championship with 10 points, while Birmingham City lead the league with 29 points. Burnley’s recent form is LDDLL, compared with Birmingham City’s WWWLW. The last meeting ended Burnley 3-0 Birmingham City on 27 Dec 2022. Burnley have won 0 of 7 at home, while Birmingham City have won 4 of 7 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Burnley at home
4 played · 0W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–0 (D)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–2 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
Birmingham City away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 2–1 (W)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Burnley vs Birmingham City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.5%Under 51.5%
- Both teams score
- 52.3%No 47.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.51 – 1.11Total 2.61 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 22%Burnley · Birmingham City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.5%), but more scorelines end in Burnley winning, so that is the most likely result (46.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 3.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Burnley to score 1.51 goals and Birmingham City 1.11. Its ratings have Burnley scoring at 1.15 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 1.03 and 0.90 for Birmingham City. Full methodology.
Questions about Burnley vs Birmingham City
Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Birmingham City?
Our model's most likely result is Burnley win at 46.2%. Full probabilities: Burnley 46.2%, draw 26.3%, Birmingham City 27.6%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley vs Birmingham City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.51 goals for Burnley and 1.11 for Birmingham City.
Will Burnley vs Birmingham City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.5% and both teams to score 52.3%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →