Championship · Gameweek 16
Lincoln City vs Wrexham Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Wrexham 42.1%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Lincoln City: 3 of 5. Wrexham: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Lincoln City vs Wrexham: prediction analysis
Lincoln City are 21st on 15 points after 15 matches; Wrexham are 15th on 18. In their last 5 league matches Lincoln City won 1 and Wrexham won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Lincoln City at home
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 4–1 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 0–6 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
Wrexham away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–1 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Derby County · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 0–6 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lincoln City vs Wrexham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.2%Under 47.8%
- Both teams score
- 56.1%No 43.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.27 – 1.49Total 2.77 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 28%Lincoln City · Wrexham
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.2%), but more scorelines end in Wrexham winning, so that is the most likely result (42.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 2.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 3.5 | 30.1% | 70.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lincoln City to score 1.27 goals and Wrexham 1.49. Its ratings have Lincoln City scoring at 0.85 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.19 times, against 1.08 and 1.03 for Wrexham. Full methodology.
Questions about Lincoln City vs Wrexham
Who is the favourite in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Our model's most likely result is Wrexham win at 42.1%. Full probabilities: Lincoln City 32.1%, draw 25.8%, Wrexham 42.1%.
What is the most likely score in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.2%. The model expects 1.27 goals for Lincoln City and 1.49 for Wrexham.
Will Lincoln City vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.2% and both teams to score 56.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-fe5b51c95edf
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →