Championship · Gameweek 16
West Ham vs Preston North End Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: West Ham 70.6%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). West Ham: 1 of 5. Preston North End: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
West Ham vs Preston North End: prediction analysis
West Ham are 9th on 23 points after 15 matches; Preston North End are 24th on 8. In their last 5 league matches West Ham won 1 and Preston North End won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
West Ham at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 2–3 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 6–0 (W)
Preston North End away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 0–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 1–4 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
West Ham vs Preston North End: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73.2%Under 26.8%
- Both teams score
- 62.7%No 37.3%
- Predicted goals
- 2.69 – 1.11Total 3.80 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 7%West Ham · Preston North End
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.0% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 2.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| 3.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects West Ham to score 2.69 goals and Preston North End 1.11. Its ratings have West Ham scoring at 1.64 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.12 times, against 0.85 and 1.12 for Preston North End. Full methodology.
Questions about West Ham vs Preston North End
Who is the favourite in West Ham vs Preston North End?
Our model's most likely result is West Ham win at 70.6%. Full probabilities: West Ham 70.6%, draw 16.2%, Preston North End 13.2%.
What is the most likely score in West Ham vs Preston North End?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.0%. The model expects 2.69 goals for West Ham and 1.11 for Preston North End.
Will West Ham vs Preston North End have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 73.2% and both teams to score 62.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-203efd4c67e8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →