Championship · Gameweek 18
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Southampton 49.9%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Southampton: 1 of 5. Middlesbrough: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: prediction analysis
Southampton sit 4th on 28 points after 15 matches, while Middlesbrough are 2nd on 29 points. Both teams have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Southampton are unbeaten at home across 7 matches, while Middlesbrough have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses away. Middlesbrough won the last meeting 4-0 on 4 Jan 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Southampton at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 4–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–0 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 4–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 3–1 (W)
Middlesbrough away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Watford · 0–0 (D)
- 4 Nov 2026 · Wrexham · 0–2 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 5–1 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 3–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.3%Under 40.7%
- Both teams score
- 60.3%No 39.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.81 – 1.27Total 3.07 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 16%Southampton · Middlesbrough
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.8%), but more scorelines end in Southampton winning, so that is the most likely result (49.9%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 2.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 3.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Southampton to score 1.81 goals and Middlesbrough 1.27. Its ratings have Southampton scoring at 1.38 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.89 times, against 1.22 and 0.90 for Middlesbrough. Full methodology.
Questions about Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Our model's most likely result is Southampton win at 49.9%. Full probabilities: Southampton 49.9%, draw 23.5%, Middlesbrough 26.6%.
What is the most likely score in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.8%. The model expects 1.81 goals for Southampton and 1.27 for Middlesbrough.
Will Southampton vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.3% and both teams to score 60.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-13
- Matches used
- 6,600
- Model version
- dc-v4-0d1cf6291d39
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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