Premier League · Gameweek 8
Arsenal vs Everton Prediction
Our model makes Arsenal 61.7% favourites against Everton.
Match preview
Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points after 6 matches; Everton are 8th on 9. In 42 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Arsenal won 23, Everton won 9 and 10 were drawn. They last met on 14 Mar 2026: Arsenal 2–0 Everton. In their last 5 league matches Arsenal won 4 and Everton won 2.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43.4%Under 56.6%
- Both teams score
- 41.6%No 58.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.73 – 0.68Total 2.41
- Clean sheet
- 50% · 18%Arsenal · Everton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% | 2/5 | 9/4 |
| 2.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% | 5/4 | 4/5 |
| 3.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% | 7/2 | 2/7 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 2 Arsenal players and 3 Everton players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Arsenal injury news · Everton injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Why the model sees it this way
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Arsenal to score 1.73 goals and Everton 0.68. Its ratings have Arsenal scoring at 1.38 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.61 times, against 0.89 and 0.84 for Everton. How the model works.
Questions about Arsenal vs Everton
Who is the favourite in Arsenal vs Everton?
Our model's most likely result is Arsenal win at 61.7%. Full probabilities: Arsenal 61.7%, draw 24.8%, Everton 13.5%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal vs Everton?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 14.6%. The model expects 1.73 goals for Arsenal and 0.68 for Everton.
Will Arsenal vs Everton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 43.4% and both teams to score 41.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-10
- Matches used
- 4,541
- Model version
- dc-v4-f65e2effc175
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.